Founded in 2007 and supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has become a global reference for health statistics, especially its annual Global Burden of Disease reports.
Below are some key highlights of a study led by an international team of researchers, published in The Lancet on Wednesday 15 July 2020.
THE WORLD IN YEAR 2100
- Nigeria will move from 7th position today, to become 2nd most populous country in the world with 791m.
- India will move from 2nd most populated today, to become No 1 with 1.09 billion population.
- China will move from 1st to become No 3 with 732m.
- USA will move from 3rd to 4th position with 336m.
5. Total world population will be 8.8b in year 2100, from 7.8b today.
6. More than 20 countries, including Italy, Japan, Poland, Portugal, South Korea, Spain & Thailand, will reduce in population by at least 50%.
7. Out of 195 countries, 183 will have fallen below replacement threshold for maintaining population levels.
8. Sub-Saharan Africa will triple in population to approx 3b, with Nigeria alone reaching almost 800m population.
9. Most countries outside Africa will see shrinking workforces and inverting population pyramids, with profound negative consequences for their economies.
10. As fertility falls and life expectancy improves, number of children under age 5 will drop more than 40%, from 681m in 2017 to 401m in 2100.
11. Number of people aged above 80 will jump from 140m today to 866m.
12. Due to fewer workers/taxpayers, many countries will struggle to grow economically e.g. working age people in China will drop 62% from about 950m today to just over 350m by 2100.
13. In Nigeria, the active labour force will expand 425% from 86m today to more than 450m by 2100.
14. Nigeria’s GDP will improve from 27th today to become the 9th global economy.
15. By 2100, the world “will be multipolar, with India, Nigeria, China and the USA the dominant powers,” said Richard Horton, describing the study as outlining “radical shifts in geopolitical power”.